The new BP Energy Outlook 2035 declares CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels to be “not sustainable”, and forecasts their increase unless severe regulations are introduced.
BP’s new outlook for global energy markets has warned that carbon dioxide emission levels from burning fossil fuels will increase by 1% per year, or 25% in total, through to 2035, following a trajectory significantly above the path recommended by scientists to avoid extreme negative effects on climate change.
To abate carbon emissions further will require tougher binding regulations on atmospheric pollution, and according to BP chief executive Bob Dudley, “the projections highlight the scale of the challenge facing policy makers at this year’s UN-led discussions in Paris”; in fact, the United Nations has set out to limit the increase of the average global surface temperature to a maximum of 2°C to limit climate change, and has convened a meeting in Paris in December to agree on a binding system for restricting emissions.
Recently, China and the US, which play the lead in CO2 emission, clinched a significant deal on strict targets to limit pollution, but there’s still uncertainty around which approach should be favoured in order to encourage lower fossil-fuel energy consumption and a switch to renewables, especially in the rapid growing Asian economies, where renewables will have a hard time keeping pace with the ever-increasing demand for energy. According to BP’s report, “The rapid growth of renewables currently depends on policy support in most markets, as renewables tend to be more expensive than coal or gas-fired power. To maintain rapid growth, the costs of renewable power need to keep falling, reducing the subsidy required for unit of power”.
However, last year BP forecasted that CO2 emissions from energy use would increase by 1.1% annually or 29% to 2035, so the new projection is slightly lower than the preceding prevision.
The gLAWcal Team
Thursday, 19 February 2015