Rural Africa in motion: Dynamics and drivers of migration south of the Sahara is the outcome of a partnership between the French Agricultural Research Centre for International Development (CIRAD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of United Nations (FAO), The atlas, published on 2 November 2017, provides insights on the complex migration patterns observed in the Sub-Saharan Africa and helps to design coordinated action to address migration issues.

Extensive reliance on rain-fed crop production (representing 96% of the agricultural land of the region) makes the Sub-Saharan Africa region particularly vulnerable to climate change. Moreover, the region has very limited economic and institutional capacity to adapt to climate impacts. Since the region is currently faced with an unprecedented population growth, these issues are becoming even more pressing.

The Atlas points out that Sub-Saharan Africa will experience wheat and maize crop losses as a consequence of even small changes in temperatures. Losses are estimated at around 20% by 2050 if no action is taken. Slow development of irrigation supplies, the low adaptive capacity of existing farming system, the limited institutional capacity to implement effective adaptation measures further exacerbate region’s vulnerability. The Ethiopian Highlands, the Great Lakes region, Northern Nigeria and specific areas of Central Mali and Burkina Faso already face a critical environmental crisis.

The complexity of factors driving migration makes it impossible to exactly predict future migration dynamics. However, the Atlas stresses the importance of monitoring the following variables: size of the rural population, location, and occurrence of extreme weather events, poverty and hunger levels, job opportunities, quality of governance.

Although climate change affects migration, mitigations efforts are also impacted by social, economic and political factors. In order to manage migration in Sub-Saharan Africa, the Atlas suggests a great variety of measures including the adoption of climate adaptation measures, capacity building, development of regular and safe migration channels, development of sustainable large cities, and stronger investment in intermediary cities. Moreover, investments in agriculture and rural development are crucial for addressing migration effectively.

The gLAWcal Team