The report Groundswell – Preparing for Internal Climate Migration, published by the World Bank Group, analyses the nexus between climate change impacts, internal migration patterns and development. It is the first and most comprehensive study of its kind. The report, focused on three developing regions - Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Latin America, projects that climate change could force more than 143 million people ((around 86 million in Sub-Saharan Africa, 40 million in South Asia, and 17 million in Latin America) to move within their countries by 2050.
The research team, led by World Bank Lead Environmental Specialist Kanta Kumari Rigaud applied a multi-dimensional modelling approach applying demographic, socioeconomic and climate impact data to estimate the potential scale of internal climate migration. Analysis of three potential climate change and development scenarios (“pessimistic,” “more climate friendly” and “more inclusive development”) revealed likely shifts in population within countries.
Across all scenarios, climate change is a growing driver of internal migration from increasingly non-viable areas affected by climate change (crop failure, water stress, sea level rise). Without adequate climate and development action, climate change will push tens of millions of people to migrate. It is worth mentioning that these “climate migrants” would be additional to the millions of people already moving within their countries for economic, social or political reasons.
The report also identifies major “hotspots” of climate migration - areas from which people are expected to move and areas to which people will try to move to build new lives and livelihoods. Areas likely to become areas of increased climate in-migration include locations with better climatic conditions for agriculture as well as cities able to provide better livelihood opportunities such as the southern highlands between Bangalore and Chennai in India, the central plateau around Mexico City and Guatemala City, and Nairobi in Kenya. “Out-migration” hotspots include low-lying cities, coastlines vulnerable to sea level rise, and areas of high water and agriculture stress, such as the northern highlands of Ethiopia or Dar es Salaam in Tanzania.
Nonetheless, the report finds that concerted action could help reduce the number of internal climate migrants by as much as 80 percent by 2050. The report recommends following actions:
1) Cutting global greenhouse gas emissions to reduce climate pressure on people. The report points out that rising levels of greenhouse gas emissions could lead to the severe disruption of livelihoods and ecosystems, further creating the conditions for increased climate migration.
2) Embed entire cycle of climate migration in development planning: National agencies need to integrate climate migration into all facets of policy and to secure resilience and development prospects for all those affected.
3) Investing in data and analysis to improve understanding of internal climate migration trends.
According to the World Bank Chief Executive Officer Kristalina Georgieva, the new research provides a wake-up call to countries and development institutions. She added: “We have a small window now, before the effects of climate change deepen, to prepare the ground for this new reality.”