According to the IPCC, the climate change will force people into increasing poverty and displacement, exacerbating the factors leading to conflicts. Moreover, the risk of displacement increases when populations who lack the resources to migrate experience higher exposure to extreme weather events, particularly in low-income developing countries. Changes in migration patterns can be responses to both extreme weather events and longer-term climate variability and change: in that way, migration can also be an effective adaptation strategy. The IPCC’s March 2014 report has also indicated that climate change can indirectly increase risks of violent conflicts in the form of civil war and inter-group violence, amplifying drivers of these conflicts such as poverty and economic shocks. Many studies link climate variability to these forms of conflict. However, experts recognize that it is difficult to single out climatic and environmental factors as the unique driver of the population movements. To make an example, the major flow of Somalis into Kenya in 2012 and 2013 was caused by the drought and famine affecting Somalia, but also by the disruption caused by armed groups. Additionally, individuals and communities displaced by disasters and climate change and those displaced by conflicts often have to face the same kind of problem and deprivation. Regarded to that, experts are stressing that this people needs the same strong protection to those whose flight is provoked by armed violence or human rights abuses. In this framework, providing support represents a humanitarian imperative. According to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, establishing strategies to address this challenging situation represents also our common interest, because if we fail to find sustainable solutions for displaced populations, we will be creating the conditions in which further violation of international peace and security are certain to occur. The gLAWcal Team EPSEI project Tuesday, 14 October 2014 (Source: UNHCR)

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