The UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report, released on 31 October 2017, tracks the policy commitments made by countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and analyses how these policies address emissions reduction targets. In particular, the UNEP focuses on the “gap” between the emissions reductions necessary to achieve the Paris Agreement goals and the likely emissions reductions from full implementation of the Nationally Determined Contributions.

The eighth edition of the Emissions Gap Report finds that national pledges made in form of Nationally Determined Contributions bring only a third of the reduction in emissions required to meet climate targets set by the Paris Agreement. Hence, the UNEP calls for more ambitious climate actions taken by governments, as well as private sector. The Report identifies that following sectors have great emissions reduction potential: agriculture, forestry, buildings, energy industry and transport. 

The Paris Agreement, established in 2015, builds on the commitment of holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. In addition, states should pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels in order to significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change. However, the Report revealed that the 2°C emissions gap for the full implementation of the current pledges for 2030 is 11-13.5 GtCO2e and the 1.5°C emissions gap is 16-19 GtCO2e. Even full implementation of the current pledges makes a temperature increase of 3 °C by 2100 very likely.

According to the Report, CO2 emissions have remained stable since 2014. The main drives indicated by the Report have been the growing renewable capacity of China and India, reduced coal use in China and the USA and as well as structural changes in global economy. However, in order to meet the Paris Agreement goals, both governments and non-state actors need to deliver much stronger pledges and enhance their mitigation efforts. The emission gap has to be closed.

The gLAWcal Team