The Paris Agreement, concluded in 2015, builds on the commitment to hold increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. In addition, states should pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels in order to significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change. According to the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), national pledges made in form of Nationally Determined Contributions bring only a third of the reduction in emissions required to meet the 2 °C climate target set by the Paris Agreement. UNEP’s 2017 Emissions Gap Report concluded that even full implementation of the current pledges makes a temperature increase of 3 °C by 2100 very likely.[1]

Joint effort of Tufts University, Rutgers University, and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany resulted in the publication of a study titled Global mean sea-level rise in a world agreed upon in Paris. Their conclusions show that enhanced effort to limit increase in global average temperature could save coastal communities and ecosystems. The scientists focused on projected sea-level rise under various scenarios and its possible consequences.

According to the scientists, stabilizing global temperature rise at 1.5°C would lower the impact of sea-level rise significantly. In particular, meeting ambitious objective of keeping increase in the global average temperature to well below 1,5°C would be translated into sea-level rise of 17,7 centimetres less than under a 2°C. Since ecosystems are already overwhelmed by flooding and other ecological changes, the 0,5°C difference could help them to adapt and survive.

The study’s lead author, Klaus Bittermann said: “Some people might argue there will be no sizable difference between the two targets, so we should aim for the higher one, because it’s easier. However, those differences turn out to be significant.”

Against the backdrop of the current “gap” between the emissions reductions necessary to achieve the 2°C target and the likely emissions reductions from full implementation of the Nationally Determined Contributions, holding increase in the global average temperature to well below 1,5°C above pre-industrial levels, would require more ambitious climate actions taken by governments as well as private sector.

The gLAWcal Team

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[1] The Emissions Gap Report 2017 A UN Environment Synthesis Report.